Monday, May 21, 2007

Baseball Stats and Baseball Picks - A Look at the Quality Start

In no sport are statistics kept like they're kept in baseball. The nature of the game of baseball lends itself to the compiling of stats because every occurrence on a baseball field is easily isolated and therefore quantifiable in some way. The same cannot be said for other sports. But just how important are baseball stats to making winning baseball picks? A better question might be: Which baseball stats are useful in making winning baseball picks?

A quick look around any major sports website will reveal the sheer volume of statistics kept on baseball. ESPN, for example, has pages and pages of stats covering every facet of the game, the vast majority of which are totally useless to the baseball bettor.

No single aspect of the game has more impact on the success or failure of your baseball picks than does starting pitching and, like every other aspect in baseball, starting pitching comes with both metric and standard craploads of stats. What is his groundout to flyout ratio? How does he pitch with RISP? How about with RISP and 2 outs? How does his second time through the lineup compare to his first? You can easily locate his ERA and compare it to his DIPS ERA and component ERA - that is, if you have no life.

One stat, however, gets very little attention, and that's the Quality Start. Of all the hundreds of pitching stats you can look at in deciding your baseball picks, you should begin with the Quality Start. The definition is very simple: A Quality Start is where the pitcher goes at least 6 innings and allows 3 or less earned runs.

It's easy to understand and to the point and tells you pretty much all you need to know about the guy you may bet on. A pitcher who can provide quality starts with some consistency is a guy who keeps his team in the game and gives them a very realistic chance of winning each and every time he takes the mound, and that's really all you can ask of the starting pitcher. Additionally, a quality starter, by going at least 6 full innings, will minimize the impact the bullpen - usually a collection of fair to poor pitchers - will have on the game.

At Precision Plays we begin our analysis of any potential baseball pick by determining whether or not the starting pitchers involved can be relied upon to provide their respective teams with a solid performance - with a Quality Start. For seven years, this method has translated into success for us and our clients.

Of course, the Quality Start cannot tell you whether or not your baseball picks will win, but it WILL point you in the right direction. Historically, teams who get a Quality Start out of their pitcher win 60-65% of the time.

That's a pretty good jumping off point for any baseball bet.

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